Thailand is known to be a tourist’s paradise, with much to offer. And tourism is one of the main sources of income for the country, contributing to about 17-20% of its GDP, with it expected to touch 30% by 2030. Industrial and services sectors are other major contributors to its export-led economy, with agriculture and minor also adding to it.

Will the GDP of the country go down in 2026?

What You Need to Know

The Track Record

Over the last few decades, Thailand has shown incredible economic growth. From 1960 to 1996, it grew 7.5% annually. This was the time of economic boom. From 1999 to 2005, it grew by 5% annually due to the Asian Financial Crisis, while the kingdom’s national poverty rate fell from 42.5% in 2000 to 6.3% in 2021.

For the last few years, however, its economy has stagnated. After the COVID-19 pandemic, its annual growth rate is around 2% on average between 2021 and 2024. 

The GDP

Thailand’s GDP was at 17.922 trillion baht (USD 514.8 billion) as of 2023. In Q3 of 2024, it showed the strongest growth of 3%  YOY since 2022, accelerated by government spending. 

What Is Being Said

Earlier in July 2024, Thailand’s Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said that Thailand’s economy is not doing good and is facing structural problems. Rising bad loans and house debt, which amounted to more than 90% of the GDP, was a cause for concern that the government is trying to address.

A media outlet reported in October 2024: ‘Analysts warn of an economic cliff in 2026 if no new growth engines are introduced.’

Kiatnakin Phatra Research (KKP) and BofA Global Research have raised their GDP outlooks for Thailand from 2.8% to 3.0% for 2025. This is being attributed to the government’s 10,000-baht (US$300)  cash handouts to low-income groups.

Yes or No?

For the next two years, Thailand has to tackle multiple medium-term challenges: slower productivity growth, lack of innovation, and an aging population, among others. With that said, the country is also the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia and held USD 237 million in international reserves as of December 2024. 

So, will Thailand’s GDP see a fall in 2026? If you’ve deduced the outcome and want to opinion trade, sign up on the best opinion trading platform, One Trade, now! Invest in your opinion and earn. Trade live and see where your research gets you.